Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Wie ist die mittelfristige Attraktivität von Emerging Markets im direkten Vergleich zu entwickelten Märkten aus makroökonomischer Sicht einzuschätzen und welche Länder sollten Investoren vor dem Hintergrund einer möglichen Leitzinswende in den USA besonders berücksichtigen oder meiden?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“What is your assessment of the mid-term attractiveness of emerging markets in direct comparison to developed markets and - in light of a potential interest-rate hike in the US - which emerging countries should investors generally focus on or avoid?”
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Stefan Hofrichter, Chief Economist, Allianz Global Investors (29.04.2015):
“Our base case scenario remains that global growth will be close to potential in the coming quarters. Weaker oil prices are supportive for growth this year. We continue an overweight position in risky assets even though there are clouds gathering on the horizon: Fed rate hikes, valuations in some asset classes, low earnings growth and political risks. Active management is key in this environment. Growth momentum is stronger in the developed markets rather than emerging markets. Emerging markets data recently stabilized, at best. The outlook for Asia is a brighter because the current environment helps commodity importers and not exporters. Emerging market currencies and fixed income offer interesting valuations longer term. Emerging market equities, too, are not expensive, probably with the exception of China. However, given our expectations of a fed rate hike in the third quarter – earlier than so far anticipated by markets – we wouldn’t be surprised by rising volatility for emerging market assets during the summer.”
