Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Wie ist die mittelfristige Attraktivität von Emerging Markets im direkten Vergleich zu entwickelten Märkten aus makroökonomischer Sicht einzuschätzen und welche Länder sollten Investoren vor dem Hintergrund einer möglichen Leitzinswende in den USA besonders berücksichtigen oder meiden?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“What is your assessment of the mid-term attractiveness of emerging markets in direct comparison to developed markets and - in light of a potential interest-rate hike in the US - which emerging countries should investors generally focus on or avoid?”
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Stephen Mitchell, Head of Strategy, Global Equities, Jupiter Asset Management (30.04.2015):
"Demographic trends are a much under-utilised tool when investing, as population growth generates returns and strongly favours emerging markets (EM) over developed markets (DM) for another decade. Looked at another way, Japan and Finland, two advanced economies with very poor demographics have seen a lot of damage since their populations started to decline. It is easy to see then that EM must benefit from their more positive population trends, with the most favourable including Mexico, Brazil, India, the Philippines and Indonesia. The Gulf States and Africa also qualify for the longer term investor.
As the USA hikes rates it is important to choose EM with solid fundamentals, notably a healthy current account surplus – meaning less fragility and vulnerability to external shocks. This suggests China, Taiwan, Singapore, Malaysia, Indonesia and Brazil as good candidates while Turkey and South Africa are best avoided. Mexico with its huge potential to increase oil production is interesting. Countries that require close scrutiny are those with persistently high inflation levels such as Russia and Turkey. It’s a measure of efficiency in the economy."
