Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Wie ist die mittelfristige Attraktivität von Emerging Markets im direkten Vergleich zu entwickelten Märkten aus makroökonomischer Sicht einzuschätzen und welche Länder sollten Investoren vor dem Hintergrund einer möglichen Leitzinswende in den USA besonders berücksichtigen oder meiden?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“What is your assessment of the mid-term attractiveness of emerging markets in direct comparison to developed markets and - in light of a potential interest-rate hike in the US - which emerging countries should investors generally focus on or avoid?”
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Hans Bevers, Makroökonom, Petercam (30.04.2015):
"The recent strong performance in EM equities has been mainly linked to the boom in Chinese equities following changes in regulation. EM equities are likely to prove vulnerable to changes in liquidity conditions on the back of the Fed moving to a first rate hike. The near term cyclical outlook and valuation for EM (with exception of commodity exporters) are positive. We continue to expect that these positives will drive the market.
Whether the first rate hike of the Fed will cause more EM turbulence is uncertain. After all, since May 2013, most EM currencies except the CNY, KRW and TWD have already depreciated a lot. Moreover, tightening measures following the first rate hike are also likely to take place much more gradually than was the case in the late seventies and early eighties when Volcker aggressively fought inflation (hiking the policy rate from 10% to almost 18% in two years’ time) and in the mid-nineties when the Fed took markets by surprise.
However, all this does not mean that EM are now completely out of the woods and tighter US monetary policy will not pose further problems for EM. Given the current low growth environment, the recent fall in commodity prices and China looking increasingly vulnerable, higher US interest rate could very well expose more EM weakness."
