Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Wie ist die mittelfristige Attraktivität von Emerging Markets im direkten Vergleich zu entwickelten Märkten aus makroökonomischer Sicht einzuschätzen und welche Länder sollten Investoren vor dem Hintergrund einer möglichen Leitzinswende in den USA besonders berücksichtigen oder meiden?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“What is your assessment of the mid-term attractiveness of emerging markets in direct comparison to developed markets and - in light of a potential interest-rate hike in the US - which emerging countries should investors generally focus on or avoid?”
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Mike Conelius, Portfolio Manager, Emerging Markets Bond Strategy, T. Rowe Price (29.04.2015):
"Investor sentiment continues to be very fragile. On a more positive note, much of this should clear up in the next twelve months. There’s optimism about Argentina's October elections, for example, and predictions that the country will become open to foreign capital again. In Venezuela there shouldn’t be a near-term default, which is what markets are pricing in today. In fact, we're taking some tactical positions in Venezuela right now - not very large holdings but they offer a pretty hefty income.
There have been concerns about hard currency corporate debt as the U.S. dollar appreciates. There is a sense that some creditors may not be able to pay out their debts in dollar terms and there may be an increase in defaults. Yet most companies are well positioned to withstand this pressure: some have hedged their payments, some have substantial hard currency reserves and so forth.
The prospect of Fed tightening will undoubtedly bring liquidity challenges over the next few months. At least this will be a short-to-medium-term problem. We prefer to see the period of liquidity constraint as a buying opportunity rather than an obstacle."