Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Wie ist die mittelfristige Attraktivität von Emerging Markets im direkten Vergleich zu entwickelten Märkten aus makroökonomischer Sicht einzuschätzen und welche Länder sollten Investoren vor dem Hintergrund einer möglichen Leitzinswende in den USA besonders berücksichtigen oder meiden?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“What is your assessment of the mid-term attractiveness of emerging markets in direct comparison to developed markets and - in light of a potential interest-rate hike in the US - which emerging countries should investors generally focus on or avoid?”
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Nadège Dufossé, Head of Asset Allocation at Candriam Investors Group (30.04.2015):
"Emerging markets have been suffering over the past years from growth’s slowdown. Over a longer term perspective, the valuation argument makes emerging markets more attractive than developed markets, since their growth and re-rating potential are higher. Over the medium term other factors will impact the performance of emerging markets. Interest-rate hike in the US is generally considered as detrimental to emerging markets performance. This has been true in 2013 during the short period of rates’ increases but there is no stable correlation between emerging markets (bonds or equity) performances and US rates increases. We also do not expect a strong rate increase or USD appreciation until year end that would severely affect emerging markets performances. On the opposite side, monetary easing in many emerging countries should support growth and risky assets performance this year. This more constructive view mainly applies to emerging Asia for the time being (and Chinese equities in particular)."