Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Wie beurteilen Sie die bisherige Wirkung des EZB QE-Programms und welche Chancen beziehungsweise Risiken sollten europäische Investoren im weiteren Verlauf der Anleihekäufe unbedingt im Fokus behalten?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“How do you assess the effect of the ECB’s bond purchases to date and what chances and risks should European investors focus on in the further course of the QE program?”
Klicken Sie auf den entsprechenden Experten, um das gesamte Statement angezeigt zu bekommen:
Christine Johnson, Head Fixed Income, Old Mutual Global Investors (02.06.2015):
"The law of conservation of energy states that energy can neither be created nor destroyed. In financial markets you could substitute the word ‘energy’ for the word ‘risk’. From time to time it looks as if risk has gone away, instead - you can assume risk is simply unseen somewhere else in the system. So what to make of the ECB’s world where German Bunds trade at 0.1% yields - has risk been extinguished in these instruments? And if so where has it gone?
It’s tempting to think it’s the risk that the ECB might stop buying – but they are all too aware of the consequences. Instead we can be more practically minded and peer into the mechanics of the market. ‘Liquidity’ as defined by Central Bank largesse is in abundant supply – but ‘liquidity’ the ability to buy or sell without loss or delay – to ‘frictionless transact’- is no more. The combination of a single price-insensitive buyer and a negative deposit rate forces holders of cash into less liquid instruments. Without a float of cash to absorb sellers or accumulate when there are buyers there’s no elastic in the system. When participants try to transact - to make any adjustment at all - the price moves are outsized and violent. It shouldn’t matter much except for what the bund market represents. It should be the ‘risk free’ standard and is what investors use to hedge other ‘risky’ things. If the hedge stops functioning as the market seizes up there will have to be outright risk shedding elsewhere."