Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Wie beurteilen Sie die bisherige Wirkung des EZB QE-Programms und welche Chancen beziehungsweise Risiken sollten europäische Investoren im weiteren Verlauf der Anleihekäufe unbedingt im Fokus behalten?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“How do you assess the effect of the ECB’s bond purchases to date and what chances and risks should European investors focus on in the further course of the QE program?”
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Andrew Milligan, Head of Global Strategy, Standard Life Investments (29.05.2015):
“If the experience of negative nominal yields becomes embedded for a period of time, then there are considerable implications, not just in Europe. For the general public, for example, the introduction of negative deposit rates at banks could eventually lead to a tipping point at which the public may start to hoard paper currency.
For companies, investors and policy makers, trends are already in place which could lead to severe distortions. There is a risk that negative yields encourage financial engineering; issuing debt with a negative yield could be very attractive for firms who use the proceeds for share buy backs or M&A activity.
It is debatable whether negative nominal rates do much to promote economic growth and inflation, but they may help stabilise expectations. However, over time negative rates should inflate asset prices, especially equities, residential and commercial property, creating room for portfolio shifts, and eventually bubbles, to develop.
We warn that negative yields can create more of a gap or divergence between the economic cycle and the asset cycle. As and when the buyer of last resort steps back, bubbles burst.”
