Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Wie beurteilen Sie die bisherige Wirkung des EZB QE-Programms und welche Chancen beziehungsweise Risiken sollten europäische Investoren im weiteren Verlauf der Anleihekäufe unbedingt im Fokus behalten?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“How do you assess the effect of the ECB’s bond purchases to date and what chances and risks should European investors focus on in the further course of the QE program?”
Klicken Sie auf den entsprechenden Experten, um das gesamte Statement angezeigt zu bekommen:
Lucy O’Carroll, Chief Economist, Aberdeen Asset Management (02.06.2015):
"Clearly QE in Europe has had an effect. You only have to look at core Eurozone Government bond yields to see this, which although having risen recently, have remained at very suppressed levels. The reason for this is a distinct lack of people willing to sell.
In terms of its effects on economic growth, the longer term picture is yet to be determined. However, the first estimate of GDP growth for 2015 Q1 showed Europe expanding by 0.4%, compared with 0.1% in the US and 0.3% in the UK. The Eurozone has also surprised in recent weeks: the region’s bond markets have been exceptionally volatile, with German Bund yields remaining close to record lows. However, that downward trend was arrested dramatically in the final week of April, when yields on 10-year Bunds jumped to 0.36%. The move pushed the Bund yield close to where it was before the ECB launched its asset-buyback programme.
So where do we go from here? Three factors could play a part. First, the data: a return to negative inflation or disappointment on the activity side could tempt investors back into their low-yield bets. Second, market views on central bank actions are likely to be pivotal. Any hint that the ECB could add to bond purchases, could renew downward pressure on yields. Equally, signs of a pick-up in wage or price inflation, could cause another bout of speculation over ECB ‘tapering’ and a snap back up in yields. The ECB will not be the only central bank influencing bond markets in the months ahead – far from it.
Given the range of factors involved, volatility is far more likely to be the order of the day - over the next few months at least."