Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Auf welchem Fundament steht eine mögliche Leitzinswende in den USA und welche (realistischen) Entwicklungen könnten Janet Yellen dazu veranlassen 2015 doch keine Zinserhöhungen durchzuführen?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“To what extent is the economic foundation of the USA supporting a potential interest-rate hike and which (realistic) headwinds could force Janet Yellen not to raise rates in 2015?”
Klicken Sie auf den entsprechenden Experten, um das gesamte Statement angezeigt zu bekommen:
Bart Van Craeynest, Chef-Ökonom, Petercam (24.03.2015):
“The US economy has basically recovered from the 2008 crisis. With the unemployment rate back at 5.5% (close to estimates of the NAIRU) and capacity utilisation back at its long term average, slack in the economy has all but disappeared. The US economy is getting back to normal, while monetary policy is still very far from anything even slightly resembling normality. In that light, beginning the normalisation process of monetary policy is warranted. This is confirmed by the overall strength of the labour market.
That said, the Fed has the option to wait somewhat longer. Recent economic data have shown some weakness. This is probably just temporary, but the Fed could wait to see whether or not this affects the recovery in the labour market. Moreover, inflation remains low, wage growth is still subdued and dollar strength could be an issue. All these elements could be used to defend holding off on the first rate hike.“