Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Auf welchem Fundament steht eine mögliche Leitzinswende in den USA und welche (realistischen) Entwicklungen könnten Janet Yellen dazu veranlassen 2015 doch keine Zinserhöhungen durchzuführen?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“To what extent is the economic foundation of the USA supporting a potential interest-rate hike and which (realistic) headwinds could force Janet Yellen not to raise rates in 2015?”
Klicken Sie auf den entsprechenden Experten, um das gesamte Statement angezeigt zu bekommen:
Nicolas Doisy, Senior Economist, Amundi (25.03.2015):
“We think that the Fed has many more reasons not to hike than to enter a tightening cycle because:
1. From a domestic point of view, there still is a lot of slack in the labour market that is visible in the lack of wage pressure which, in turn, translates into price inflation below the official 2% target: indeed, the Phillips curve linking unemployment and wage inflation (or price inflation) has once again been moving away from its traditional position since the end of QE-3, while, at the same time, purging the inventory of non-performing loans comes with too slow a recovery in investment, just like in 1992-94.
2. From an external point of view, the headwinds to be expected are coming from China and Europe: China’s recent unofficial admission that deflationary pressures are greater than many suspect is bolstering Ms. Yellen’s point that China is the Fed’s number-one source of worry. Likewise, Ms. Yellen has posited that a successful QE-Z (Quantitative Easing for the euroZone) in Europe would help the US, thereby suggesting a failure would have the opposite effect.”
