Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Auf welchem Fundament steht eine mögliche Leitzinswende in den USA und welche (realistischen) Entwicklungen könnten Janet Yellen dazu veranlassen 2015 doch keine Zinserhöhungen durchzuführen?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“To what extent is the economic foundation of the USA supporting a potential interest-rate hike and which (realistic) headwinds could force Janet Yellen not to raise rates in 2015?”
Klicken Sie auf den entsprechenden Experten, um das gesamte Statement angezeigt zu bekommen:
Eric Vanraes, Fixed Income Portfolio Manager, EI Sturdza Investment Funds (25.03.2015):
"By removing the word “patience”, the Fed is becoming even more patient! Our forecast is a unique rate hike in Q4 2015. For 5 main reasons:
1.) Inflation is low and deflation fears increase. The US CPI, calculated with European standards, i.e. without rental and real estate price increases, would already be negative.
2.) The USD is very strong in a currency/yield World War. Year to date, more than 20 central banks eased their monetary policies to weaken their currencies. The Fed would be isolated in this worldwide accommodative battle.
3.) Except for non-farm payrolls, most of the macroeconomic data are weaker (and everybody knows that the real unemployment rate is far above 5.5%).
4.) Mrs Yellen says that growth will be moderate.
5.) A Fed Fund rate hike could provoke a sharp drop of the S&P 500 after a record six year rally, when earnings start to decline significantly."