Aktuelle Frage im Economics Forum:
„Auf welchem Fundament steht eine mögliche Leitzinswende in den USA und welche (realistischen) Entwicklungen könnten Janet Yellen dazu veranlassen 2015 doch keine Zinserhöhungen durchzuführen?“
Current Question in the Economics Forum:
“To what extent is the economic foundation of the USA supporting a potential interest-rate hike and which (realistic) headwinds could force Janet Yellen not to raise rates in 2015?”
Klicken Sie auf den entsprechenden Experten, um das gesamte Statement angezeigt zu bekommen:
James McAlevey, Head of Interest Rates and Member of the Henderson Fixed Income Strategy Group (25.03.2015):
"At the latest FOMC meeting and the subsequent press conference, the Fed Chair, Janet Yellen, discussed the necessary elements that could trigger the first step up in interest rates and we broadly agree with her assessment.
Specifically, continued improvement in labour markets will be a sufficient reason to hike, as well as stabilisation in inflation data, which should increase confidence that inflation will trend towards target.
However, markets seem to have a different interpretation; believing that wage pressures will be the key determinant. In our opinion, while rising pressures on wages will determine how quickly, and how far, interest rates will rise in the US, they are not necessary for the first step.
Conversely, a material, and not just modest, slowing in the labour markets would delay the timing of the first step up in rates. The Fed currently sees the effects of lower commodities and the stronger dollar (the two are interlinked) as transitory, but if the trends become persistent holding inflation back, that could be a cause not to raise rates."
